Tuesday, January 7, 2014

The Big Run Up to 2014 LS Elections

(07 Jan 2013)

These are exciting times for the country as it gears up to elect lawmakers who will script the story of India over the next five years. If what has been transpiring in the political circles off late is anything to go by, the Lok Sabha elections promise to be one hell of a cliffhanger.

The recently held Assembly elections in few states have been dubbed by many as the semifinals before the big match. While the anti-Congress wave clearly has been felt sweeping across these states, and while the BJP hasn’t spared any opportunity to attribute their triumph to the Narendra Modi factor, it is also true that a new kid named AAP has been born. This wonder kid is now aspiring to go national.



AAP has overwhelmingly surprised their own calculation, and they have reluctantly or otherwise been given the power to rule the state of Delhi. While they’re constantly being criticized for a clear lack of executable strategies and plans, many feel despite the absence of their national level vision, they could manage to dent a hole in the traditional BJP urban pockets and make their presence – however insignificant it is – felt. With political pundits almost writing Congress off and with BJP riding high on Modi-wings, one would have expected a relatively smoother run for the saffron party, but for the emergence of Kejriwal’s AAP. The problem with the magic number is that we live in times of coalition politics. And even as less as 25 seats for the AAP may stir up the coalition arithmetic. They’ll however be faced with a mammoth ideological dilemma, not knowing what to do with the seats they’ll win. They’ve openly and rather brazenly many times declared every political party but themselves as corrupt. Clearly, a possible ‘third front’ shouldn’t be an option they’d like to be seen as contemplating. After all, such a front may comprise the likes of Jayalalitha and Mulayam – people AAP will struggle to team up with.

In a recent TV debate, senior Congress leader Manishankar Iyer repeatedly said his party was only concerned about ensuring Modi didn’t come to power at the Centre and he hoped that AAP would play a pivotal role in that. That’s widely seen as a proof of the grand old party’s helpless state of affairs. They know they’re all but over as far as their political fortunes this year are concerned.



My prediction is that in the coming weeks, we’ll see an intense level of media and political scrutiny of every move AAP makes. Political parties can’t openly question its motives out of a fear of becoming unpopular with the voters, which is all the more why its methods are going to be acid tested every day. As for Kejriwal’s government in Delhi, this is perhaps the only time they have to prove that in addition to distributing freebies, they do have implementation blueprints vis-à-vis governance and policies.

Nevertheless, we’ll be glued to the political arena as we follow the race to the Parliament!

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